What Goes Up Must Come Down...

Gravity, Economics and the Destination Club Conundrum
-Susan Kime

The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable = John Kenneth Galbraith

Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy
Warren Buffett

Gravity, Gravitas

Very few times in the history of ideas, especially in physics, astronomy and astrophysics, do the creative thinkers in those respective sciences agree on anything: but Kepler, Newton, Einstein, Hawking and even Warren Buffett all threw objects into the air, and in all cases those objects fell to earth, thus, allowing all the thinkers realize that gravity has a lot to do with everything.  Warren Buffet recently likened our economy as sinking into a darker side, and noted the basic tenet of action/reaction, stimulus/response: what goes up must come down. This is how it is with just about everything, unless we live on a planet with no gravity.

In a certain perceptual, though myopic way, many of us assumed that we have lived for years on this gravity-free planet, assuming that the force did not affect us. Many threw metaphorical apples into the air, and saw them go higher and higher. They expected they would go higher until they were out of sight. These people expected the economy would always grow, and potential club members would always have interest in destination clubs, ready to be convinced of the rightness, the sexiness of the Destination Club idea. In addition, sales projections – 2, 5, and even 10 years out  would always be larger than they were now.  The assumption of growth without limits is the assumption, of flowing without ebbing, of expansion without contraction, of a gravity-free world.  The problem is, we live on Earth. And where there’s gravity, there is eventual deflation. And now, for the first time in the short history of the destination club industry, potential club members wish to hold on to their money, existing members often want redemption, and not in the Judeo-Christian sense. Most all the apples, tossed in the air in the past few years have fallen to the ground with a great leaden thud. What were we thinking? Did we think growth would go on forever?

The Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends 2009, states: “ “The credit crisis and ensuing recession promise to drag real estate markets into a difficult period marked by value losses, rising foreclosures and reduced property revenues …After an unprecedented meltdown, housing values should all hit bottom during the year, followed later by correcting commercial sectors..”

In addition, luxury consumer confidence as measured by Unity Marketing's Luxury Consumption Index continued its downward trajectory in the third quarter 2008. The LCI dropped 10.7 points to reach an historic low of 40.3 points, the lowest level ever since Unity started measuring affluent consumer confidence at the end of 2003. 
"Unity Marketing's most recent survey of luxury consumers, conducted Oct. 3-8th 2008, following the bailout and during the recent stock market upheaval, shows that affluent consumers' negative feelings about the economic situation are translating into changes in their shopping behavior," said Pam Danziger, president of Unity Marketing, a consumer insights firm that specializes in the luxury consumer mindset. “Findings in this survey of 1,161 affluent consumers include: some 56 percent are spending less on luxury now as compared with twelve months ago, and fifty-four percent expect to spending less on luxury in the next twelve months.”

Articles

Any:
An Introduction to Fractionals

Art:
Fractional art donations prove charity starts at home

Handbags:
25 questions to ask about fractional handbag clubs

Boats & Yachts:
25 questions to ask a fractional boat operator
Fractional Boats in New Zealand
Pushing the (fractional) boat out
Boats & yachts- what's on offer?
Fractionalize This

Classic Cars:
25 questions to ask a fractional car club
Why opt for a 'fractional' classic car?
Classic Car Club Feature
Getting the most out of your fractional ownership experience
Why Not Rent?
You've Always Loved Cars?
Fractional Life hits Le Mans

Destination Clubs:
Relationship Selling to Todays Affluent Fractional Clientele
Mixed Use: Avoiding a mix up
Focus on the Registry Collection
DCs- Variety is the spice of (fractional) life
Fractional Property Glossary
Aspirational vs. Inspirational Media
Member Strategies For Lean Times
Brand Maintenance During An Implosion
What Goes Up Must Come Down...
Savings through Foreign Exchange
Fractional Finance Solutions
Destination Clubs- an alternative?
Fractional Ownership Heads to Europe
Private Residence Club Perspective Part 1
Quintess
Ultimate Resort
Calistoga Ranch
The Weybridge Collection
The Villas at The Grand del Mar
The Solstice Collection
Vacation Visions: Exceptional Exterior and Interior Designs of Residence and Destination Clubs 
Why the Boomers will change second home ownership in the US
Middle East Leisure Real Estate Market Booming
Bear Mountain Resort - A View from Paradise
New Association For Fractional Ownership
The New Vacation: A Time to Retune Re-Connect

Consultancy:
Profit Opportunities in Luxury Fractionals - A Summary

Exchange:
The Golden Rules of Fractionals

Racehorses:
A Horse by The Name of Fractional Life
Running Down a Dream

Corporate Hospitality:
So Long to the Suite Life

Aircraft & Jets:
25 questions to ask a fractional jet operator
Top tips for fractional jet travel
Jet Republic pilot applications reach new heights
Focus on Fractional Jet Europe
A closer look at fractional aviation
CoGoJets introduces jetpooling
Joining the jet set
Fly for a fraction of the cost
Flying without Wings
Can't afford that jet? Rent it
How Private Aviation Works

Private Clubs:
A tale of two cities - Private residence clubs in San Francisco and London
The Italian Job: interview with Byrne Murphy of Palazzo Tornabuoni
Mixed Use: Avoiding a mix up
PRCs with added benefits
Northstars 'stay and play ' option
Private Residence Club Perspective
Fractional Property Glossary
What are the ingredients for the ideal Private Residence Club?
Savings through Foreign Exchange
Fractional Finance Solutions

Real estate:
Fractional Summit USA 2010- Speaker biographies
25 questions to ask about fractional property ownership
Fractional Summit Speaker Biographies
Fractional Property - The New Normal
Gay Community Embraces Fractional Property
Fractional Real Estate Investment Or Lifestyle Purchase?
Fractional Sales: Square Pegs In Round Holes?
Fractional Real Estate Commissions
Urban Fractionals
European Mixed-Use Resort Development in 2009
Mixed Use: Avoiding a mix up
Property- the legal issues
Fractional Holiday Getaways
Fractionals-Recession beaters?
State of fractionals
Fractional Property Glossary
Savings through Foreign Exchange
Fractional Finance Solutions
Fractional Property- the legal issues
Fractional Property Regulation
Fractional Ownership? We'll have a piece
Keep The Door Open
Why Fractional Property?
The Benefits of Fractional Ownership in Private Residence Clubs
Middle East Leisure Real Estate Market Booming
New Association For Fractional Ownership
Saving Homes, Homeowners and Banks Through Fractional Ownership?

Lifestyle:
Savings through Foreign Exchange
Convergence in the Fractional marketplace
The stock market for songwriters

Supercars:
25+ questions to ask a fractional car club
Live The High Life In A Fractional Supercar
Why Individuals Should Join A Supercar Club
Why opt for a 'fractional' supercar?
Focus on Marque II
Eco-road-warriors- How will the supercar club line-up of the future change?
Fresh metal- What's new on the supercar front?
So Why Not Buy?
You've Always Loved Cars?
Supercars- The cars of 2006/7
Let's Take The Lamborghini
Fractional Life hits Le Mans
Ascari Racing Festival Weekend
Fractional Supercars at the MPH Show
GROUP20 The SuperCar Club announce their 2007 Road Show in aid of Children In Need
New supercar club with green credentials

Luxury Motorhomes:
Denver RV show ready to roll

Wine & Spirits:
Wine